Categories / Numerical Modeling / Atmosphere


Responsable: Dra. Ruth Cerezo


As part of the CONACYT-SEMARNAT project, "Climate Trend Analysis and Dynamic Regionalization for Mexico", simulations (hindcast) covering the period 1979-2008 will be generated, with two regional climatic models: PRECIS and RegCM3, at a resolution of 50 km For the entire domain as shown in the image).

According to the most recent report of the IPPC (2013), the mean global surface temperature shows a clear positive trend and each decade is warmer than the previous one, with the number of warm days and warm nights increasing. With less certainty, the report indicates that extreme precipitation events are also increasing (in intensity or in frequency). However at regional level, specifically for Mexico, there is much uncertainty about changes in trends, especially in the case of precipitation. In this project the effort of four institutions (UNAM, UAZ, CICESE, UV) was combined to generate a set of numerical simulations (dynamic donwnscalling) covering the period 1979-2010, with two regional climatic models: RegCM4 (with different parameterizations ) and HadRM3P at high resolution (50-25 km), for all of Mexico, which is the first project of intercomparison of regional models made in Mexico and which also obtains an analysis of observed and modeled trends.

Proyecto Catedras CONACYT v1146

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